The transportation industry is a pillar of the American economy. Considering that roughly 75% of all freight is moved by truck, trucking plays an indispensable role in keeping the supply chains moving and the nation working.
The past few years have been challenging, but thanks to an intersection of factors, the trucking industry forecast for 2025 appears favorable for both trucking companies and truck drivers across the United States. There are issues to overcome, but most industry sources report positive trends and have an optimistic outlook for 2025. Best of all, there is good reason to believe that freight rates will increase over the next 12 months, making a career in trucking even more lucrative.
Before giving our forecast, let’s review the recent past and examine the top factors at play in 2025.
Paving the Road: 2024 in Review
As many remember, 2020 through 2022 saw high volatility for truckers. The industry was snagged with supply chain issues, which sent rates soaring. Numerous trucking companies were created during this period, as people attempted to cash in on the windfall. Around 2022, however, rates started to plunge and the industry went into a freight recession.
The recession, marked by too much capacity (too many truckers and shipping groups) and not enough demand, created a tough environment for truckers. This status continued until, according to one major source, the recession broke in the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to FreightWaves, a price-reporting agency focused on the global freight market, the great freight recession was “officially over” by the fall of 2024. They cited various data points to make this claim, but primarily focused on two specific benchmarks. First was a rate of higher tender rejections, which means truckers are turning down freight. This indicates carriers have more opportunities and are being selective when taking on jobs. Second is an increase in spot rates, which usually follows high tender rejections. When rejections are up, shippers have to increase prices to attract drivers.
These factors suggest a better market, with more freight choices and higher pay for truck drivers.
We have likely broken the “great freight recession,” but there are still roadblocks for trucking. In 2025, the industry is going to deal with a variety of issues that will provide both boosts and barriers to our sector.
Issues Impacting Truckers: The 2025 Trucking Industry Forecast
Despite an overall stable year, some issues persist. The cost of insurance, for instance, has become a growing issue, rising to the fourth-highest concern among truckers. The lack of truck parking, increased cargo theft, and volatile fuel prices are issues that may present continued challenges for drivers into 2025, among others.
Potential Tariffs and Their Impact
Tariffs were a tool during the first Trump presidency, and the president has made them part of his second-term agenda. Assuming President Trump can and will implement tariffs, most agree that it will largely favor U.S. manufacturing, which could increase domestic demand for carriers to haul materials, parts, and finished products.
Tariffs could also increase prices, which would slow economic activity. There is a concern that this strategy could decrease demand for freight hauling. However, many industry experts and logistics firms are optimistic about tariffs.
Adoption of AI Tools
All sectors of the economy have been impacted, in some way, by the growth of artificial intelligence. The trucking industry is certainly no different, although artificial intelligence is not operating commercial trucks. Deloitte Insights conducted a survey on artificial intelligence use and the trucking industry, finding that AI is popular for numerous purposes including demand planning, inventory management, and fleet management.
However, they discovered that the best economic value comes when trucking companies use AI for asset management, finance and risk management, customer service, and route optimization. The sweet spot, for the largest adoption and highest value, is in warehouse operations, route optimization, and asset management.
As we look ahead into 2025, it is anticipated that trucking companies will continue to implement these supportive, efficiency-building tools. The most successful carriers will not only embrace these innovations but will also leverage them strategically to gain a competitive edge.
Cost of Insurance
In the fall of 2024, the American Transportation Research Institute released its annual Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry report. The economy, truck parking, and lawsuits were all issues, but the fourth-largest concern, which was not included the previous year, was insurance cost and availability.
With rising prices for insurance, carriers and shipping companies will have to deal with this issue and factor the cost into rates and salaries.
Driver Shortages
There has been a prolonged downturn in freight demand, which has masked a shortage of drivers. Numbers vary, but it’s estimated that the industry has about 78,000 positions unfilled in the summer of 2024.
The trucking industry is struggling to attract new hires across some market segments. At the same time, current drivers are approaching retirement. For truck drivers, this potential shortage is a positive trend. With less competition in the market, this trend could contribute to higher pay for drivers and improved policies within companies to retain quality driving personnel.
What to Expect in 2025?
2024 was a strength-building and recovery year for the trucking industry, with many positive trends going into the new year. There are challenges ahead, but overall the industry is experiencing wide-scale optimism for 2025. In some cases, it’s outright excitement.
Important Sectors Will Bring Higher Demand for Trucking
A variety of areas are poised for increases in 2025. One of the most important, to both trucking and the national economy, is the industrial sector. Driven by already-enacted changes like infrastructure investments from manufacturing incentives, as well as the potential for increased oil production and protective tariffs, the manufacturing and industrial sectors should see increases.
Optimism is also coming from the real estate sector. 2025 should see further rate cuts and the release of pent-up demand for residential construction. If this optimism becomes reality, freight carriers will be needed to ship lumber, building materials, furniture, and appliances.
Continued Adoption of AI and Digital Technology for Efficiency
We expect the adoption of AI and digital technology to continue. Transportation companies will continue to experiment with the tools, discovering which uses bring the best return on their time and energy.
Current surveys suggest that asset management, risk management, customer service, and route optimization bring the best value, so it’s likely these will be the most common uses for AI tools.
Overall Prediction: Slow Recovery Comes Early, Rapid Increases Late
With a potential breakout from numerous sectors, combined with a national (and global) shortage of drivers, we can confidently predict a positive year for truck drivers. Freight haulers may not see the massive rates of 2021, but considering the current factors and upcoming changes, the trucking industry forecast for 2025 is largely positive.
It will take time for certain factors to ripple into the shipping industry, but once they do, the effect will be strong. For example, assuming interest rates are lowered further, there will be higher demand for housing. Housing construction will then increase; once building plans are set in motion, truckers can start moving materials, then appliances, and eventually haul the furniture needed to fill these homes.
This is why most experts and analytic groups are predicting steady progress for most of 2025, with the potential for rapid expansion late in the year.
InTek Freight and Logistics, for example, is predicting relatively stable freight rates with “slowly, steadily” increasing prices through the first quarter. In mid or late 2025, however, they expect freight volumes to rise because of economic recovery. “Shippers and carriers,” they say “should prepare for potential rate increases commencing in the latter half of 2025.”
2025 is poised to be an exciting year for truckers. With a recovering economy and increased demand for freight hauling, numerous trucking companies are already looking for drivers who can be a part of their success over the next twelve months.
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